Ashley Elizabeth Miller

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Donald Trump spent his campaign promising to lower prices for American consumers with keen attention to groceries. But his tariff agenda from the Rose Garden this week has prompted dire warnings from economists and world leaders that we the people are in for a world of pain.

By using tariffs as a tool against our foes and friends, Trump hopes to narrow America’s $1.2 trillion trade deficit in goods, raise billions in revenue (to fund his tax cuts), and bring back manufacturing jobs and production of critical goods to the U.S.

Right now, America relies on Asia — particularly China — for cheap everyday items, as well as critical goods and minerals. Many companies have moved production to other countries — such as Vietnam and Cambodia — to avoid competition in China and potential tariffs. Now, on top of China, Trump is imposing huge tariffs on those countries too.

“We will see a strengthening of Chinese trade with Europe, and China acting as the U.S. did post-World War II as the country with some money and ability likely to help the likes of Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia as we see a reordering of trade flows,” Cheryl Smith, an economist at Trillium Asset Management, told Barrons magazine.

Capital Economics estimates the average U.S. tariff rate — a tax on countries importing their goods to America — is set to shoot from 2% last year to just over 20%. This has led to comparisons of Trump’s tariff agenda with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that deepened a recession in the 1930s.

“The economic disruption is going to be longstanding. If Covid taught us anything, supply chains are extremely complex and difficult to rearrange overnight,” Smith said.

Comparing tariffs to an act of war, as Warren Buffet famously did earlier this year, Barron’s warns: Trump should be wary of overestimating America’s strength and its opponents weakness:

“Think Napoleon invading Russia while engaged with the United Kingdom” — finding itself “overstretched and outmatched.”

So much for lower grocery prices.